Tüpraş’ın RUP bakımı 90 gün sürecek

(-) Tupras to complete its RUP maintenance within 3 months Recall that the company has already announced that RUP will be shut down for maintenance in 1H19 which is technically required in every 4 years. Depending on previous maintenance periods of the refiners, the expectations were around 9-12 weeks (3-4 months) for the maintenance period. Accordingly, the 90 days of the maintenance period should be considered as in line with the expectations. The total impact of the shut-down is expected to be around USD40mn/ month EBITDA loss as the loss of production is planned. Also note that  no reduction in the sales volume is expected given the production loss will be compensated by increase in the imports. The total impact is expected to be around USD120mn EBITDA loss- implying a 7% downside risk to 2019F EBITDA. The stock has underperformed the market by 9% over the last 3 months given the uncertainties on the potential implication of the maintenance on the operations. Now, the guidance is clear on the potential implications and the expected loss figure should not be considered as a game-changer for 2019 prospects as the company is currently one of the best beneficiary refiners in the region on an average of 42% YoY higher middle distillate crack spread levels. Even we potentially see some selling pressure on the stock in the opening session, we welcome the news as the uncertainty is over and the market may be on course to price the positive prospects in the following days.

(-) Tüpraş’ın RUP bakımı 90 gün sürecek Şirket bakımdan kaynaklı FAVÖK kaybının ise aylık 40mn ABD Doları olmasını bekliyor. 3 aylık bakımın toplam maliyeti 120 milyon ABD Doları FAVÖK kaybına işaret ederken, 2019 beklentilerimize %7 aşağı yönlü risk oluşturduğunu görüyoruz. Haber kısa vadede negatif olabilir ancak belirsizliğin ortadan kalması ile hissed önümüzdeki günlerde pozitif seyreden karlılık dinamiklerinin fiyatlanacağını öngörüyoruz.