Sanayi üretimi, perakende satış hacmi ve sektörel ciro verileri 3Ç20’de güçlü büyüme ivmesine işaret etti. 2020 yılı tamamın için %0.5 daralma beklentimizi %0.25 büyümeye revize ediyoruz.
- Mevsimsellikten arındırılmış sanayi üretim endeksi Eylül’de aylık bazda %1.7 artış gösterirken. Yıllık hacim artışı yılık %8.1’e erişti.
- Sonuç olarak 3Ç20’de sanayi üretim hacmi yıllık bazda %7.5 artış göstermiş oldu. Hatırlanacağı üzere 2Ç20’de yıllık bazda daralma oranı %17 olmuştu.
- Sektörel ciro verisine baktığımızda, hizmetler ciro endeksinin Eylül’de %5.2 artış gösterdiğini gözlemliyoruz. 3Ç20’de sektörel ciro endeksinin yıllık bazda %4.2 daraldığını gözlemliyoruz. İnşaat sektörü cirosunun ise Eylül’de %2.0 artış gösterdiğini gözlemliyoruz
Thanks to credit impulse equivalent to about 8% of GDP in the first 3 quarters of the year and opening of economies in main trading partners, industrial production and retail sales volume recovered rapidly in 3Q20. We are revising our FY20 GDP estimate to a slight expansion of 0.25% from a contraction of 0.5%.
- Seasonally adjusted industrial production increased by 1.7% MoM in September on top of 3.4% MoM expansion in August. . As a result, calendar-adjusted industrial production increased by 8.1% YoY
- As a result, industrial production increased by 7.5% YoY in 3Q20 following 17% YoY contraction in 2Q20.
- Retail sales volume increased by 3.4% MoM in seasonally adjusted terms in September. In YoY terms, the increase was 21.0% YoY. Accordingly, retail sales volume increased by 20% YoY in 3Q20 following 3.4% YoY contraction in 2Q20.
- According to the sectoral revenue indices, seasonally adjusted services sector revenues increased by 5.2% MoM in September and 7.7% in YoY terms. More importantly, in inflation-adjusted terms, there still was a contraction of a high single digit percentage. In the entirety of 3Q20, the annual contraction of services revenues stood at 4.2%. Nevertheless, assuming there would not be any closure of the economy in 4Q20, we could see a positive print in annual change in services sector revenues. This would probably still point to an inflation-adjusted contraction of at least 5% YoY.
- Seasonally adjusted construction revenues increased by 2% MoM in September and 23% YoY terms, In inflation adjusted terms, the expansion was probably about 5.0%. In quarterly terms, construction sector revenues increased by 16.4% YoY in 3Q20 following 22.0% contraction in 2Q20.
