Tüpraş 2020 beklentilerini aşağı yönlü revize etti
Şirket satış hacmi beklentisini 25 milyon tondan 23 milyon tona, üretim beklentisini ise 24 milyon tondan 22 milyon tona revize etti. Rafineri marjı beklentisi ise varil başına 3-4 ABD Doları’ndan 1 ABD Doları’na revize edildi. Rafineri yatırımları beklentisi ise 125 milyon ABD Doları’ndan 115 milyon ABD Doları’na revize edildi. Benzin karlılık seviyeleri ve petroldeki yükselişin aksine, dizel karlılık seviyeleri karantina süreçlerinin gevşetilmesi sonrası global olarak zayıf trendini korudu. Buna paralel şirket tarafından yapılan aşağı yönlü marj revizyonunu global rafineri sektöründeki gelişmelere paralel değerlendiriyoruz ve mevcut marj beklentisi 2020 yılsonu için 190 milyon ABD Doları FAVÖK beklentimiz ile uyumlu görünüyor. Öte yandan, satış hacmi beklentisi bizim 25 milyon ton beklentimizin yaklaşık %8 altında seviyelere denk geliyor. Açıklamaya piyasa etkisi ilk etapta negatif olabilir.
Tupras revised down its 2020 guidance
According to the official announcement, along with the ongoing negative impact of Covid-10 on oil product demand and crack margins, the company revised down its sales expectation from 25mn tons to 23 mn tons and the production expectation from 24mn tons to 22m tons. The refining margin expectation was also revised down from USD3-4/brl to USD1/brl for the full year. The refining investment expectation was also revised from USD125mn to USD115mn. Currently, the demand from most of the oil products have recovered back to their pre-Covid-19 levels, except jet fuel. On the other hand , unlike oil prices and gasoline crack spread levels, the diesel crack spreads have not shown any strength following the end of lock-down periods globally. In other words, the diesel crack levels are still hovering around 70% lower levels compared to its historical average while jet crack spreads are still in the red territory. Accordingly, the downward revision is in line with the recent weak picture on the global refining industry front. Our USD190mn EBITDA estimate for the year-end (BBERG: USD285mn) is in line with the recent downward revision in the margin-side where we calculate a USD0.80/brl refining margin for the full year- including USD143mn inventory gains for the second half. On the other hand, we find the downward revision in the sales volume is surprising that is 8% lower than our year-end assumption of 25mn. The market reaction would be negative to the revisions. However, considering the stock’s weak performance since the Covid-19 outbreak and limited downside risk for the diesel cracks –hovering around its lowest levels since 2002-, we believe that the most of the negatives have already priced in the market.
